Why Inventory Forecasting Matters More Than You Think

Inventory mistakes cause:

• Dead stock

• Out-of-stock bestsellers

• Cash flow issues

• Heavy discounting

• Delayed deliveries

• Marketplace penalties

Smart forecasting protects profit.

Step 1: Understand Your Sales Velocity

Sales velocity =
How many units you sell per day (on average)

Example:

If you sold 300 units of a SKU in 30 days:

300 ÷ 30 = 10 units per day

If you have 50 units left:
50 ÷ 10 = 5 days of stock remaining

That’s your real number.

Many sellers guess. Winners calculate.

Step 2: Plan for Seasonality (India-Specific)

Indian ecommerce has clear seasonal spikes:

• Diwali

• Navratri

• Eid

• Wedding season

• Back-to-school

• Summer vs winter demand

If you sell ethnic wear:
Sales may triple during festive season.

If you sell skincare:
Summer and winter behave differently.

Look at:

• Last year’s monthly sales

• Last 90-day patterns

• Festival calendar

Seasonality planning prevents panic reordering.

Step 3: Use Simple No-Code Inventory Tools

You don’t need coding.

Small sellers can use:

1. Built-in ecommerce dashboard reports
2. Google Sheets forecasting template
3. Inventory management apps
4. Low-stock alert plugins
5. POS-integrated tracking tools

Even a structured spreadsheet works if updated weekly.

The key is discipline—not software complexity.

Step 4: Set Low-Stock Alerts

Many sellers realize stock-out only when:

“Orders suddenly stopped.”

Instead, define:

Minimum Stock Level =
Lead Time (days) × Sales Velocity

Example:

Supplier delivery time: 10 days
Sales velocity: 10 units/day

Minimum reorder point = 100 units

If stock falls below 100 → reorder immediately.

This is basic reorder planning—and it works.

Step 5: Plan for Supplier Lead Time

Indian suppliers may take:

• 5–7 days (local)

• 15–25 days (manufacturing)

• 30–45 days (import)

If you don’t account for lead time, you’ll stock out.

Always reorder BEFORE you need stock.

Step 6: Identify Dead Inventory Early

Track SKUs that:

• Haven’t sold in 30–60 days

• Have high return rates

• Have poor conversion

For slow-moving stock:

• Bundle with bestsellers

• Offer limited discounts

• Use in flash sales

• Push via WhatsApp campaigns

Dead stock eats profit silently.

Step 7: Reorder Planning Framework

Simple 4-step model:

1. Track daily sales velocity
2. Add buffer for seasonality
3. Add supplier lead time
4. Maintain 10–20% safety stock

That’s it.

No advanced math required.

Step 8: Cash Flow + Inventory Balance

Never lock all capital in inventory.

Healthy ratio:
Inventory cost should not exceed what you can rotate in 45–60 days.

Fast turnover = healthy business.

Automation Without Coding

Today, small sellers can:

• Enable automatic low-stock alerts

• Get weekly inventory reports

• Track SKU-level performance

• Sync marketplace + own store inventory

• Forecast using historical sales charts

The future of ecommerce is data-driven—but accessible.

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